Highlights of the Economic Survey 2025-26
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
The finance minister said that consolidation of state-owned banks could proceed at any time without waiting for the recommendations of the proposed high-level committee on banking.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
The RBI under new Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday cut interest rate for the first time in nearly five years as the central bank pivoted the policy stance to support a shuttering economy. The 25 basis points rate cut to 6.25 per cent comes after last rate reduction in May 2020. The last revision of rates happened in February 2023 when the policy rate was hiked by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent.
The best course for the government at this time would be to tighten the seat belt a little more, without compromising on its investments in creating better infrastructure and giving a push to privatisation, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The official also advised all the trade partners to abide by the trade deals. The new 10 percent global tariff is part of Trump's protectionist trade agenda, aimed at addressing balance-of-payments issues and unfair trade practices.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The Union Budget for 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, which was a first, had an excellent domestic macro backdrop. According to the first advance estimates, gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices is projected to grow 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, against 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
The reduction in the goods and services tax (GST) rates has increased the momentum in India's economic activity both on the supply and demand sides, while robust agricultural activity - reflected in the strong onset of rabi sowing and adequate reservoir levels - has reinforced the outlook for food supply and rural incomes, the finance ministry said on Thursday.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
'We kept this Budget on a larger plank, rather than on one incident, however serious.'
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
New Delhi will substantially reduce tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods while continuing to protect sensitive sectors. Tariffs on some agricultural products that are not traditionally considered sensitive will be brought down to zero, while in the case of relatively sensitive items, duties will be reduced in a graded manner and quotas will be imposed.
'This Budget has a one-year agenda, which you can call the sprint, and the marathon is towards Viksit Bharat.'
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee may have earned plaudits for projecting a decline in the fiscal deficit to 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2010-11, but his targets for revenue deficit reduction are relatively modest and represent a departure from the 13th Finance Commission's recommendations.
India is growing fast, but to keep growing strong, the government must make more things at home, create jobs, and spend money wisely, suggests Rajiv Memani, regional managing partner, Africa-India Region, EY.
As part of the plan, government departments may have to surrender the unspent project-linked component of the Rs 70,000-crore (Rs 700-billion) additional gross Budgetary support at the end of the financial year.
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
The State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest research report said that reforms in GST through reduction in rates will cause a minimal revenue loss of Rs 3,700 crore. The government estimates the net fiscal impact of GST rates rationalisation will be Rs 48,000 crore on an annualised basis.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) short dollar forward positions rose by $6 billion in September - the first increase in seven months - indicating the central bank's readiness to defend the rupee in the forward market amid pressure on the currency, latest data showed. The net short dollar position stood at $59.4 billion at the end of September, up from $53.4 billion in August.
The Indian government has expressed its disagreement with the IMF staff's 'baseline' assumption that the 50 per cent US tariffs on its goods exports 'would remain in place indefinitely', based on which the staff pegged the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent this year, and pared its 2026-27 projection by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.
To ensure a glitch-free rollout of the next-generation GST with reduced rates and lesser slabs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman chaired three separate meetings to assess GSTN's preparedness and the time it would take to implement technological changes required in the software systems.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
The Trump administration said it will conduct a "rigorous" re-examination of all Green Cards issued to immigrants from "every country of concern".
GST Reform 2.0, which trims tax slabs from four to two, signals a push for demand-led growth, and together with recent income tax cuts, sets the stage for sustained economic growth, experts said. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on September 3 approved an overhaul of the indirect tax regime by taxing essentials at 5 per cent and other goods at 18 per cent. A new 40 per cent tax will be applicable on luxury and sin items.
The central government is likely to further consolidate its fiscal deficit by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.4 per cent in FY23, according to a recent report released by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. In the current fiscal year, there is going to be an upside of 0.5 per cent on the receipts side due to higher nominal GDP growth, and higher tax buoyancy because of the formalisation, the report said. The upside to expenditure is mainly going to come from incremental subsidies (0.8 per cent of GDP), in both food and fertilizer, it said. The upcoming pre-election Budget will carry forward the trend of the increased capital expenditure seen in recent years.
In a narrow 218-214 vote, the United States House of Representatives on Thursday passed President Donald Trump's massive $4.5 trillion tax and spending bill -- his signature second-term policy package -- just ahead of the July 4 deadline.
It would increase economic growth for years to come.
US President Donald Trump announced a deal with Pakistan to develop its oil reserves, suggesting Pakistan might sell oil to India in the future.
After effecting two back-to-back 25 basis points rate cuts, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday hinted at another reduction in key policy rate by changing the central bank's monetary stance to 'accomodative' from 'neutral', which may further lower EMIs for consumers.
India's extreme poverty rate declined sharply to 5.3 per cent over a decade from 27.1 per cent in 2011-12 even as the World Bank revised upwards its threshold poverty line to $3 per day.
Reserve Bank on Friday decided to cut Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by a huge 1 per cent, which will unlock Rs 2.5 lakh crore liquidity to the banking system for lending to productive sectors of the economy. With the reduction in four equal tranches ending November 29, 2025, the CRR would come down to 3 per cent.
India and the US have finalised the terms of reference outlining the roadmap for negotiations of the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), according to a statement issued by the US. US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said that these ongoing talks will help achieve balance and reciprocity by opening new markets for American goods and addressing unfair practices that harm US workers.
