GST Reform 2.0, which trims tax slabs from four to two, signals a push for demand-led growth, and together with recent income tax cuts, sets the stage for sustained economic growth, experts said. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on September 3 approved an overhaul of the indirect tax regime by taxing essentials at 5 per cent and other goods at 18 per cent. A new 40 per cent tax will be applicable on luxury and sin items.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
In a narrow 218-214 vote, the United States House of Representatives on Thursday passed President Donald Trump's massive $4.5 trillion tax and spending bill -- his signature second-term policy package -- just ahead of the July 4 deadline.
US President Donald Trump announced a deal with Pakistan to develop its oil reserves, suggesting Pakistan might sell oil to India in the future.
India's extreme poverty rate declined sharply to 5.3 per cent over a decade from 27.1 per cent in 2011-12 even as the World Bank revised upwards its threshold poverty line to $3 per day.
Reserve Bank on Friday decided to cut Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by a huge 1 per cent, which will unlock Rs 2.5 lakh crore liquidity to the banking system for lending to productive sectors of the economy. With the reduction in four equal tranches ending November 29, 2025, the CRR would come down to 3 per cent.
After effecting two back-to-back 25 basis points rate cuts, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday hinted at another reduction in key policy rate by changing the central bank's monetary stance to 'accomodative' from 'neutral', which may further lower EMIs for consumers.
'That way you're not hostage just to US sort of exports to India.'
Very sensitive items -- such as apples, which carry political weight and are closely tied to farmer interests in states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand -- may face restricted concessions.
India and the US have finalised the terms of reference outlining the roadmap for negotiations of the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), according to a statement issued by the US. US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said that these ongoing talks will help achieve balance and reciprocity by opening new markets for American goods and addressing unfair practices that harm US workers.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee may have earned plaudits for projecting a decline in the fiscal deficit to 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2010-11, but his targets for revenue deficit reduction are relatively modest and represent a departure from the 13th Finance Commission's recommendations.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
As part of the plan, government departments may have to surrender the unspent project-linked component of the Rs 70,000-crore (Rs 700-billion) additional gross Budgetary support at the end of the financial year.
The government in FY26 Budget should announce an "effective" personal income tax cut to support consumption and demand, Barclays said on Thursday. In its FY25-26 Union Budget preview, Barclays said the key ask from the Budget, to be presented on February 1, is to support growth while adhering to fiscal consolidation path.
The central government is likely to further consolidate its fiscal deficit by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.4 per cent in FY23, according to a recent report released by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. In the current fiscal year, there is going to be an upside of 0.5 per cent on the receipts side due to higher nominal GDP growth, and higher tax buoyancy because of the formalisation, the report said. The upside to expenditure is mainly going to come from incremental subsidies (0.8 per cent of GDP), in both food and fertilizer, it said. The upcoming pre-election Budget will carry forward the trend of the increased capital expenditure seen in recent years.
'... that it once again shies away from renewing its commitment to strategic divestment,' points out A K Bhattacharya.
'When Prime Minister Modi met President Trump, they agreed to initiate a bilateral trade dialogue.' 'It makes sense to give these negotiations a chance.'
Trump has made it clear to Prime Minister Modi that India will not be spared from Washington's reciprocal tariffs and emphasised that "nobody can argue with me" on tariff structure.
"The new structure will substantially reduce taxes on the middle class and leave more money in their hands, boosting household consumption, savings and investment," Sitharaman said presenting what was dubbed as 'reformist' budget for the next fiscal in Lok Sabha.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Since Sanjay Malhotra took office as governor in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more accommodative stance, which bodes well for banking and the economy as they navigate a growth slowdown, according to analysts.
'If the Trump administration decides to put guardrails on H-1B visas, that will surely impact both US and Indian firms.'
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
It would increase economic growth for years to come.
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
India and the United States will finalize the contours, schedule of negotiations, and terms of reference for a proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) during a three-day meeting beginning Tuesday. The agreement is expected to be finalized in two tranches, with the first phase focusing on goods trade. The US team, led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, will be in India from March 25-29 to discuss the agreement. Both countries are aiming to conclude the first phase of the agreement by fall 2025.
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
The impact of Trump's announcement of increasing import tariffs will have negligible benefit for India not because of companies trying to shift from China to other countries or their supply chains being affected due to their Chinese operations but because of our faulty policies, explains Mudit Jain.
Whether she will pare the fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP, using the record dividend received from the RBI, or expand flagship government programmes will be keenly watched.
Moody's Investors Service, while silent on the sovereign rating on the higher-than-expected fiscal deficit numbers, expressed doubts over attaining the higher revenue targets and divestment realisation as assumed in the Budget. The Union Budget 2021-22 has pegged a fiscal deficit of 9.5 per cent for the current financial year as against the consensus 7 per cent, and 6.8 per cent for 2021-22 with a market borrowing of around Rs 12 lakh crore. It also assumes Rs 1.75 lakh crore to be scooped up from divestment.
Both President Barack Obama and Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives have made opening offers in negotiations to resolve the "fiscal cliff."
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, along with her team of bureaucrats, delved into the fine print of the 2024-25 Budget documents in a press conference, detailing the government's road map on bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio and bold tax measures.
The finance minister could well be on her way to setting a record of achieving the biggest single-year reduction in the government's fiscal deficit, explains A K Bhattacharya.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
'We have essentially tried to set out an agenda for the next five years and it, in essence, represents the political commitment to that agenda.'
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